My General Election 2017 predictions – The Conservatives will win, and the seat count won’t even be close…

EDIT: Well, I was half wrong. I’ll leave this here though. (9th June 2017)

It’s 10PM, and the polling stations are now CLOSED. Although this is the third general election that I have voted in (and for the record it was Lib Dem in 2010, and Labour in 2015), this has definitely been the one that I have been most engaged in, as I have recognised just how effected I have been by the results of the elections that I voted in. I am witnessing first-hand all sorts of problems.

The most striking for me was the abolition of Disability Living Allowance, in favour of Personal Independence Payment, and the fact that I am no long entitled to it. For those who don’t know, I suffer from severe refractory epilepsy. Without aid, I can’t leave my home alone. My last seizure was two days ago. It happened in the shower. I had a nasty fall, and banged my head hard on the edge of the bath, and had bruises down my back and elbows. I woke up naked, lying on the landing with my family standing over me (one of whom found me a towel. Thanks.) before they guided me to bed. This wasn’t a freak accident. I have seizures most days and have fallen down enough stairs, and been pulled out the way of enough cars and trains to know that without a carer, I will get myself killed.

penny_0_qn2mez_t8jcd9_vmpw07
My least favourite person on the planet who has yet to admit to running through a field of wheat, Portsmouth North’s MP Penny Mordaunt

A few months ago, my appeal for Personal Independence Payment was rejected on the basis that I am not permanently disabled. However, I am. I can’t work. I can’t . Oh, and my MP, Conservative Penny Mordaunt, is THE MINISTER OF STATE FOR DISABLED PEOPLE, WORK AND HEALTH. Needless to say, I didn’t vote Conservative.

Now the votes are being counted, I thought that I would have a go at predicting the results, and unsurprisingly, I’m not happy. I hope that I am wrong. We’re going to be watching Theresa May’s giggling as though she is practicing deep throat on a live fish for quite some time.

theresa-large_trans_nvbqzqnjv4bqnjjoebt78qiaydkjdey4cngtjfjs74myhny6w3gnbo8
Mr Johnson, your haddock is so biiiiig.

Tories: 330 seats

Labour: 225 seats

Lib Dem: 10 seats

UKIP: 0 seats

Pretty much the same as 2015 (C: 330, L: 232), although with a few Lib Dem seats claimed back after the atrocious results of the 2015 election, and 100% of UKIP’s, well… one seat gone. But why?

In spite of it being just one seat, the vote percentage of UKIP is of surprisingly high importance – they got 12% of the vote last time. I am under the assumption that while there will be a larger turnout than last time in favour of Labour, that additional Tory support from ex-UKIP supporters will give constituencies comfortable wins. Unless there is a cataclysmic scandal during the UK leaving the EU, courtesy of the Conservative government, and UKIP get attention as “the other right-wing party, since Tories failed”, we will never talk about UKIP again. Conservative voters are not going to change their minds en masse. They are only going to be added to by former UKIP voters, and subsequently will possibly even gain a few seats in marginal constituencies with very close results in 2015.

On top of that, I think that the appeal of Jeremy Corbyn has been oversensationalised. The appeal is culturally important as it has woken many people up (including myself). However, with so much media portraying him as a huge deal, and especially a massive threat to the nation. However, the numbers won’t be quite so substantial. A similar situation to how Donald Trump couldn’t possibly win, because the internet didn’t like it, forgetting that not everyone spends their life on Twitter.

1674_corbyn_featured-555x290
That’s Jeremy Corbyn on the cover of Kerrang. Bold by the magazine (editor James McMahon is especially vocal against Tories) but I think that this is being discussed as far more significant to Corbyn’s campaign than it really will be.

Bear in mind that in spite of all of the “everyone get off of your backsides and vote” campaigns getting a lot of attention (and rightly so), it has not only been in favour of Labour. More conservatives will be voting too, whether just because they want a say, or because they want to strategically prevent a Labour government.

Well, that’s my hunch anyway. What is yours?

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑

%d bloggers like this: